The memory chip shortage could lead to a significant decrease in global smartphone supply by 2026. According to TrendForce analysts, global device shipments could decline by about 10%, to about 1.135 billion smartphones for the year.
Analysts also acknowledge a more negative scenario, in which the decline could reach 15%. In this case, global shipments could reach around 1.061 billion devices. At the same time, in 2025, the market ends the year with approximately 2% growth and an estimated supply volume of 1.24-1.26 billion smartphones.
At the same time, the average cost of smartphones is expected to increase. Previously, memory accounted for about 10-15% of the device cost, now this number is estimated at about 30-40%.
The impact of increased memory prices will vary depending on the vendor. Manufacturers that are vertically integrated and produce memory in-house are in a better position, while brands targeting the mass market and price-sensitive devices may face greater cost pressures.
