At the Institute of Applied Mathematics named. Keldysh RAS assessed whether satellites in low Earth orbit could collide en masse due to Kessler syndrome. About this write KP.
A study by the University of British Columbia shows that there are too many artificial satellites close to Earth. If left unchecked for just one day, there is a 30% chance of a collision, leading to Kessler syndrome. This is a phenomenon in which two satellites create a pile of debris, immediately involving other satellites.
Viktor Voropaev, head of the International Telescope Network Center for Scientific and Applied Issues, says that Kessler syndrome, which occurs during a powerful magnetic storm, is almost the worst thing imaginable. According to him, “in this case, all that remains is to pray.”
However, the scientist warned that Western researchers came up with a certain algorithm (metrics) and got “terrible results.”
“Russian experts have also been calculating the traffic situation in orbit for at least five years, but have not received even close to such a conclusion,” KP summarizes.
Today, according to various estimates, there are about 14 thousand active objects in orbit, counting debris and broken equipment – at least 45 thousand. According to forecasts, in a few years there will be up to one hundred thousand.
