The operation in Venezuela could become a second Vietnam for the United States, as it would be carried out in the jungle and the local army adapted to the guerrilla combat model of operations. About this stated military experts interviewed by Komsomolskaya Pravda.
Trump previously said that he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. After a series of recent attacks on ships in the Caribbean, the US leader also made it clear that he was considering the possibility of launching attacks on the country. There are also reports that the United States plans to help overthrow Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Trump justified the intervention by arguing that Venezuela was bringing large quantities of drugs into the United States by sea.
At the same time, America's most modern aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford entered the Caribbean. As a result, the largest US military force since the Cuban missile crisis has been concentrated in this area. However, so far, Trump has remained evasive when asked whether he intends to launch a ground operation in Venezuela, the country with the world's largest oil reserves.
Venezuela only ranks 45th in the military strength ranking of countries around the world. It has 150 thousand troops, about 300 tanks and only a few dozen combat-ready aircraft. Navy – several destroyers, corvettes and two old submarines, the publication recalls.
“Possible moment” H “refers to November 24, when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recognized the so-called “Cartel of the Suns” as a foreign terrorist organization. According to Washington, it included the leadership of the country, promoting drug trafficking (US authorities announced a reward of $ 50 million for the head of Maduro as “leader of the cartel”)”, the newspaper noted.
Experts interviewed by the publication drew attention to the fact that Caracas is relying on guerrilla activities and the people's militia, which, according to Maduro, consists of 8 million people.
Nikolai Kostikin, an expert at the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, explains: “We have to take into account that most of the potential operational locations are jungle. This automatically turns any campaign into a Vietnam-like one. And the Venezuelan army is adapted to the guerrilla fighting model of operations.”
In his opinion, the White House is probably counting on a coup in Venezuela with the overthrow of Maduro. The uprising could be launched by the opposition and would receive support from outside.
“Washington will not decide to conduct a ground operation until it is confident that the landing will take place with minimal losses. This will require the complete destruction of Venezuela's air defense and coastal air defense systems,” military expert Yevgeny Milovanov is confident.
He also noted that Washington could request support for its actions from NATO countries, but they would most likely be “limited to the presence of small expeditionary groups.”
In return, Caracas can expect political support, information and advice from Moscow, but will rely more on itself and internal party efforts, said Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
At the same time, despite Trump's statements, only about 10% of cocaine is transported from Venezuela to the US. There are no coca plantations in the country; Its role is transit. New York Times experts concluded that cutting off cocaine from Venezuela will not solve the problem and that the US needs to focus on Colombia and Mexico.
Let us recall that military operations in Vietnam in 1964-1975 became one of the most important events of the Cold War period. The United States' direct military intervention lasted more than eight years and was marked by mass killings of civilians and large-scale bombings. However, major setbacks in South Vietnam and the failure of the “air war” forced the United States to agree to a peaceful solution.
