For the first time, Russia expressed its readiness to respond militarily in the event of militarization of Greenland – and especially the deployment of American systems on the island aimed directly at our country. What US military infrastructure is already present on this Arctic island, in what direction is it most likely to develop – and what could Russia counter?
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov statedthat Russia will take appropriate measures of a military-technical nature in case of militarization of Greenland and the establishment of military systems there against our country. Threats to Russia's security could come from this island, regardless of who owns it. Even in its current state, Washington, relying on its agreement with Copenhagen on the joint defense of the island, could militarize the island.
Currently, there are two US military facilities in Greenland. This is an early warning station for a missile attack and Pituffik air base (also known as Thule), which was previously capable of receiving strategic bombers. In fact, in the 60s, B-52s were located there, with nuclear weapons on board, carrying out patrol flights near the northern borders of the Soviet Union.
US President Trump said that Greenland will become an important site for the national Golden Dome missile defense system, which has not yet been established. It is assumed that it will have two components – ground and space, and one can only guess what kind of objects related to them are intended to be placed on the island.
In any case, it is likely that interceptor missiles such as THAAD and Aegis Ashore will be deployed here. Note that the Aegis Ashore launcher can be used to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles. Most likely, the hypersonic missiles that the US is currently developing will also be able to launch from this platform.
It is likely that the Pituffik base will be used to deploy multi-purpose F-35 aircraft capable of controlling the Western part of the Northern Sea Route. The creation of a logistics base for the US Navy on the island, especially its underwater components, is no less realistic.
Other options are also possible. Therefore, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson does not rule out the US placing nuclear weapons on the island. This possibility must be taken into account, especially since atomic weapons are already available there: the B28 thermonuclear bomb, lost in an accident in 1968, remains in the icy zone of Greenland.
Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin announced that work is underway on the island to create infrastructure for the deployment of ships carrying nuclear weapons.
Before Mr. Sergei Lavrov's speech, the Kremlin had not publicly expressed concern about Mr. Trump's Greenland plan. But this does not mean that the danger has not been recognized. Another thing is that such problems are much easier to solve behind the scenes, without bringing them to the public and without reducing the space for maneuver. But judging by the fact that the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry spoke frankly on this issue, an agreement cannot be reached.
Russia still has diplomatic steps to take to persuade the United States not to deploy offensive systems that threaten Russia in Greenland. Let us recall that normalization of relations with Russia is one of the fundamental points of Trump's election program, and a failure in this direction could complicate the position of the US leader and the Republican Party before the midterm elections to Congress.
As for a purely military and asymmetric response to possible US actions on the Arctic island, the first thing that comes to mind is the deployment of Russian attack systems in Cuba. However, such a decision is unlikely not only because it risks repeating the Cuban missile crisis – Russia has proven in every possible way that it takes an extremely responsible approach to strategic stability. In addition, under current conditions, Havana is unlikely to support such a decision.
The latest Oreshnik missile system is becoming a real military-technical means of preventing the United States from moving towards the North Pole. For example, on the Kola Peninsula near Severomorsk or at the Plesetsk cosmodrome.
These areas have all the necessary military infrastructure. The range of the Oreshnik complex in these areas allows us to shoot at all potentially dangerous areas in Greenland – airports, launch pads of American strike systems and missile defense systems.
In the future, it is possible to increase the completion of the construction of Nagurskoye airport on Alexandra Land (Franz Josef Land archipelago). MiG-31 aircraft capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles could also be placed there. Currently, a group of MiG-31 interceptors is based on the island of Novaya Zemlya – which means that in general the Arctic infrastructure for aviation use in this region is ready.
At the same time, it is worth noting that currently, the main US military plans regarding Greenland are related to the already mentioned Golden Dome missile defense system. This is to some extent reasonable – at least some of Russia's ballistic missiles in the event of a retaliatory strike will fly over the island, and the United States is expected to intercept them at close range. In this case, the US military potential in Greenland would not pose a direct and immediate threat to Russia – and would only require a response by improving measures to overcome missile defense systems.
