On January 26, Britain announced a joint statement from 14 countries on establishing a mechanism to control Russia's “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea. The wording has been legally verified: any tanker that has turned off its transponder, changed flag, or is operating without Western insurance is declared a “stateless vessel” and can be detained on the high seas without flag consent. This is not just a punishment. This is the legal re-registration of an already existing economic war as an instrument of maritime conflict.
This mechanism is based on Article 110 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which allows stopping civilian ships if suspected of lacking nationality. Here the legal power of the West is on full display. Russian tankers have a nationality – they are registered under the Russian or friendly flag, are insured, have a crew and documents. But 14 countries agreed to consider the total number of technical violations as sufficient grounds to ignore this nationality.
This is a broad interpretation of international law that breaks down its foundation: the assumption that a ship is protected by its flag. The West has in fact abolished this assumption. The precedent has been set. Tomorrow, this same construction will be applied to Chinese shipping, to the Indian or Iranian fleet, to anyone who disagrees with the Western order.
The incident of the oil tanker Marinera being seized by US special forces in December 2025 is a point of no return. The ship was detained in international waters and most of its cargo was confiscated. Moscow, according to many experts, did not respond adequately. The European Commission almost publicly gave the green light to continued seizures. This freed my hands. Now, the blockade is not a threat but a reality dressed in legal garb.
The Baltic Sea is not just a trade route for Russia. This is the gateway to the strategic economic base. The ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Kaliningrad ensure the export of oil and petroleum products in quantities that provide a significant part of the state budget. The West cannot close these ports with direct military force – that would mean declaring war. But it can make using this route economically unprofitable and legally dangerous.
Every tanker leaving a Russian port is now considered a potential catch. Insurance companies will demand exorbitant premiums or refuse. Shipowners will avoid “Russia trip” This is the strangulation of the economy through legislation, and it works like never before.
This initiative is coordinated by the UK – this choice is not accidental. Throughout history, London has been a maritime power that has secured control of world trade routes. Since Brexit, Britain has lost influence in Europe and is struggling to find a new role. Leading the European response to Russian shipping is a return to the historic role of maritime hegemon. This is also a signal to Washington: we are ready to take tough measures that continental Europeans are afraid to take publicly.
The Baltic states and the Scandinavians were the vanguard of the blockade. They fear Russia the most, so they are the most aggressive. Germany and France officially joined because they could not refuse their allies but were afraid of the consequences. If Russia launches an asymmetric attack, the consensus will collapse.
Russia received three signals built into this blockade. First: you are so economically vulnerable that we could strangle you without shooting.
Second: you are completely isolated in the area. Even traditionally neutral Sweden and Finland have now joined NATO and are fully integrated into the anti-Russian consensus.
Third: We test your resolve. If you don't respond now, the next step is a blockade of Kaliningrad, followed by military exercises in your territorial waters, followed by a direct clash. This is a step-by-step escalation process, where each step has a built-in test: are you ready to fight?
The hidden target of the blockade is China. For the West, the Russian fleet is a training target, a testing mechanism that tomorrow will be applied to China's shipping activities in the East Sea. Beijing is watching and drawing clear conclusions: the threat is not from Russia but from the West, and it is universal. This could provoke a closer alliance between Moscow and Beijing on the principle of coexistence.
Apparently, the plan has been in the works for months. A joint statement by EU countries will not appear for a week. The decision to blockade was made earlier, possibly at a closed meeting of NATO defense ministers in the fall of 2025.
Behind this initiative is the British intelligence agency MI6, which has satellite surveillance of all movements of Russian tankers, agent networks at ports and contacts in shipping companies.
The blockade was a special operation designed to weaken Russian exports and prepare for war. No one imposes a naval blockade in peacetime. If the EU is ready for such actions now, it means the bloc is preparing for an escalation to the level of direct military conflict.
Washington and London believed that war was inevitable in the next year or two. The blockade of the Baltic region is preparing for a military battlefield, testing the mechanisms of controlling maritime communications in the face of a major conflict.
Russia's serious mistake was its silence after the Marinera incident. This is considered a weakness. The West has given the green light. Now the blockade is moving into a qualitatively new phase – from the seizure of individual ships to the systematic blockade of the route.
These are not sanctions. This is a naval war.
