The Strategic Arms Treaty (START) between the United States and Russia has expired, the latest in a series of treaties aimed at curbing the nuclear arms race, which has included the two powers' uncontrolled buildup of their nuclear arsenals for more than half a century. President Trump received Russia's proposal to extend the voluntary implementation of treaty obligations for another year quite indifferently, in fact ignoring it.
When journalists from The New York Times reminded him of the upcoming event last month and asked about his plans, he replied: “It will expire, so it will expire.” As a final measure, as the US President confidently promised, he will “sign a better deal”.
The United Nations, commenting on the situation, was restrained, although noting that now is not the best time to increase the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Moscow gave a very negative assessment of the situation but stated that it did not intend to send any further calls to Washington.
So perhaps the main issue of global strategic stability has been suspended indefinitely. If an old document expires without a new document, a dangerous period of uncertainty can last for years. At a minimum, having drafted a “better” bilateral document, you still need to convince the other side to see it in exactly the same way.
MK asked political scientist, first vice president of the Center for Political Technology Alexei Makarkin about why Trump actually lifted restrictions on nuclear weapons and whether it was possible to convince the US President of the dangers of such a step.
-Does Russia have leverage to somehow pressure Trump to increase efforts to extend the New START treaty? And is there any reason to press it?
– It is really difficult to put pressure on Trump. If you press it, there may be a backlash. He himself is used to putting pressure on others. So the pressure here is counterproductive. In addition, nuances are important in this situation.
Trump very often proceeds according to the principle of economic interests. What benefits does America get? Petroleum, rare earth metals and everything else according to the periodic table, etc. But strategic stability is not something close to his heart. There is also the theme of China. Trump insisted on including China in the treaty.
-China doesn't want that.
-Correct. And Russia made it clear that it would be good to include Britain and France, because their nuclear arsenals were taken out of the equation under Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev.
-AND France already refused…
– And of course France refused. But Gorbachev's choice is now viewed entirely negatively in Russia. So now we are back to the topic of calculating these arsenals.
Initially, under Andropov, as you remember, in 1983, the ongoing negotiations in Geneva were interrupted, and then the Soviet Union refused to align with Great Britain and France, then this process received a new impetus and the parties reached an agreement. Now Russia's position has changed, but relations with Britain and France have also changed.
As a result, of course neither China, France nor Britain will interfere in this matter. They proceed from the fact that the Russian Federation and the United States have the main nuclear arsenal, so let them come to an agreement.
That is, it is unclear whether Trump will agree to extend the treaty, as the document expires on Thursday.
And there is another important point for Trump. These agreements are made by diplomats. It is a long process, many decades. And Trump doesn't trust diplomats. All of his entourage are people who have nothing to do with all this and have never participated in any negotiations on strategic stability.
The question is how seriously America today takes the process of reaching these agreements. For diplomats of many generations, this is an axiom – the theme of strategic stability is the main, core theme. But for Trump and his entourage, this is something from the last century.
-Oh, Trump said: now we will write a better deal, and China We'll call you and all that. Perhaps in this sense it is just an agreement.
– Well, a deal is a deal, but after 1987 the situation became much more complicated. For America's Trump today, the main opponent is China. And then there's the bipolar planning of the old Cold War. And the main competitor of the Americans in it was the Soviet Union. China has been a partner of the United States since Richard Nixon's visit to Beijing. That is, for Trump, the nuclear problem itself lies not only in Russia's nuclear arsenal but also in China's nuclear arsenal. And China said: “Do it yourself.”
-Yes, it seems there is no problem in terminating the US-Russia START Treaty… Some carefree tone…
-This is his style. He immediately makes it clear that every problem is solvable, and then tries to impose his own solution. In fact, I don't rule out that there could be some pause because of this.
For those of the old school, things are different. Biden, as senator and vice president, has addressed these issues and all of these are certainly important to him. While he was in the White House, New START was almost immediately extended for another five years. And Trump is quickly building some plans of his own, the Peace Council. For him, this is much less important, especially without China. That is, the topic of strategic stability, which has traditionally been key, will be integrated by Trump into the logic of relations with Russia and China.
His relationship with Russia today largely depends on what happens in Ukraine. This means that if they can reach a deal here, there will be momentum for other deals. And if they don't agree, other issues can hardly be resolved.
If in Russia, the Ukraine issue is Trump's top priority, then in China, his priority is clearly economic issues. Even Taiwan is somewhat blurred in his context. He doesn't talk about himself very much. For him, the rules of the game in international economic relations here are very important. That is, who rules – a player or also China.
– In a word, it turns out that this is not a purposeful delay of the problem, but simply does not solve the problem. Iran more interesting.
-Not only Iran, there are many other interesting things in the world. Strategic stability, 20 years of expert negotiations, discussion of every nuance do not interest Trump. Apparently he comes from the fact that one can live without a New START. Think about it, some would argue that this is the final agreement upon which the entire castle of strategic stability rests.
Plus, all this contract work won't get him anything in the country. In 1987, Reagan was able to explain to the American public under Cold War conditions that New START was a top priority. Prioritizing and building Soviet relations. And now for American society, these are all confusing topics, and what's happening in Minnesota or Epstein's file is much more important to them than some kind of deal. Trump didn't get any domestic political benefits from Maduro's theft, but he certainly won't get them here.
